How up to the minute can a Thursday ThoughtSpark be?
Next week, the UK goes to the polls.
Most pundits seem to agree that the outcome is inevitable, with history telling us that a 5th term for any government of any party being almost unheard of.
Nevertheless, I’m most concerned that all the media reporting in the run-up to the election is misleading us.
That’s not a political point – but rather a shout-out against misinformation.
What am I talking about precisely?
Have you not noticed that when you look at a published graph of voting intentions, that the percentages add up to 100% – or near enough?
Yet, how can this be?
All parties are also reported to be very concerned about the larger than usual proportion of voters who are undecided (anywhere between 9% and 19%).
So where do they figure on the published graphs?
If we are looking at models which estimate how that ‘undecided’ section will vote, then we need to know so.
Because most of us will assume that the reported percentages are the straightforward proportions who opted for the different parties in a simple survey.
In business and market research, if we reported only those who had a view, rather than also showing those who were undecided, we’d be shot down in seconds.
So why are we being served up with skewed perspectives around one of the most important decisions for the country to make?
